Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLOW STRENGTHENING.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THEREFORE...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD TURN IS INDICATED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS COMBINES THIS
CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E AND MOVES THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 11.9N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 13.0N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 14.0N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 16.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 17.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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