ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011 ...JOVA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 104.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF TEPIC MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNTIL THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOVA WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS....ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JOVA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF JOVA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO... AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE SWELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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