Hurricane JOVA

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
 
...JOVA MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A MAJOR
THREAT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.9N 105.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF JOVA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CONTINUES
MOVING INLAND. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER OF JOVA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MADE LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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