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Hurricane JOVA (Text)

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HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
1500 UTC TUE OCT 11 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.0N 105.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  45SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.3N 104.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  50SW  35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 104.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  35SE  75SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.1N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.5N 105.5W...INLAND POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 105.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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