Hurricane JOVA

ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES
NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 300SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  45SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.2N 105.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  55SE  55SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 110SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.7N 104.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  40SE  70SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 106.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
NNNN