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Hurricane JOVA (Text)

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HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 106.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 300SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 106.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  45SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 104.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  55SE  55SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.1N 104.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 110SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  40SE  70SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 106.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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