ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011 THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND JOVA WILL BE PASSING OVER 30 DEG C SSTS AS IT NEARS THE COAST. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY ONCE THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE. THE MOTION OF JOVA HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 030/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TWO OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS THAT TYPICALLY PERFORM QUITE WELL...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...BUT IS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. THIS IS STILL CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD...HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 17.4N 106.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 19.1N 105.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z 21.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0000Z 23.5N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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