Hurricane JOVA

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS
PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS
CURRENTLY GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

JOVA IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/4.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS
AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
WEST OF MEXICO BY 120 HOURS.  THE FIRST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER
JOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE SECOND TROUGH BECOMES THE
MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE.  MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS JOVA
MAKING LANDFALL IN 72-96 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AFTER 48
HOURS AND TAKE THE CENTER OVER OR WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS SHARP OF A TURN...AND IT CALLS
FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72
HOURS.  THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION...
AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS
MODEL STILL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WHILE THE LGEM
MODEL STILL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT.  GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
GFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 16.0N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 15.9N 107.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 16.0N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 16.7N 105.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 19.0N 104.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 23.0N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN