Tropical Storm JOVA

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TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011
 
AN 0414 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOVA IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND ABOUT 50 KT
FROM THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45
KT.  MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING JOVA
IS FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS JOVA MOVES
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.  THEREFORE...CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS INDICATING
ABOUT A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES VERY NEAR THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE
BEEN RAISED ENOUGH.  THE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER 48 HOURS AND IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO
STABLE AND TOO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE
FORECAST...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER 72 HOURS
BEFORE JOVA REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 KT.  JOVA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS TURN...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS JOVA TO THE MEXICAN COAST ALMOST A
DAY EARLIER THAN THE REST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS AND SHOWS JOVA REACHING THE COAST JUST
BEFORE 96 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 13.4N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 14.1N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 14.9N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 15.8N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 16.6N 109.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 20.5N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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