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Tropical Storm HILARY


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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
500 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011
 
...HILARY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 98.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST.  HILARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CORE OF HILARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
 
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