ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 800 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011 HILARY IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE. IT HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. IN FACT...LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD BE EVEN STRONGER. SINCE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...HILARY COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HAVING SAID THAT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HILARY HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL/HWRF FAMILY TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SEA OF CORTES IN THE LONG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.0N 100.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 16.4N 102.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 16.7N 104.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 17.0N 105.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.0N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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