Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
800 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

MICROWAVE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE INNER-CORE OF HILARY IS WELL ORGANIZED. A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AROUND THE SMALL AND NEARLY CIRCULAR EYE. 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY AN
OCCASIONAL EYE VISIBLE. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS JUST
WEST OF HILARY...AND IT IS UNKNOWN IF THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
INCREASED TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS HILARY IS
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS.  

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF HILARY...WHICH COULD BE RAPID...IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS
IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS AROUND 29C.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND
BRINGS HILARY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. 
BEYOND 72 HOURS...HILARY WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.  THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9.  A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOWING RECURVATURE WHILE SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS NEAR THE ECMWF MODEL.  

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT HILARY IS A COMPACT HURRICANE WITH
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING ABOUT 60 N MI FROM
THE CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 15.1N  98.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.6N 100.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 16.2N 102.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 16.7N 103.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 19.0N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 19.5N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
 
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