ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082011 200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2011 THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INLAND AROUND 1600 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME ELONGATED...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING DETACHED. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. WEAKENING APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN NOW THAT MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE FURTHER DISRUPTED AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION...340/06...IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION LIKELY BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...IN COMBINATION WITH THE STEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 18.5N 102.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 01/0600Z 19.2N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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