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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082011
800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011
 
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT T2.5...SUGGESTING THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEPRESSION TO LAND SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA
TODAY.  ONCE INLAND...THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.
 
THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY MAKES THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...320/06...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION AND
ULTIMATELY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY COURSE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS.  HOWEVER...
THE LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION SEEMS SLIM SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
OVER RUGGED TERRAIN LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
TO BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A
PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEFORE THE DEPRESSION
MOVES INLAND.  THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 18.0N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 18.7N 103.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 19.7N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 20.7N 105.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1200Z 21.5N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
 
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