ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011 AFTER THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY RECOVERED NEAR THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS BURST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE ALREADY WARMING. A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT. A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX OVER WATERS NEAR 23C IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOL WATERS AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST- SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST ALONG 125W...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO FEEL THE WEAKNESS AND CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS JUST A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER DURING THE FIRST DAY OR SO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.7N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.8N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.8N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/1200Z 19.8N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:15 UTC