ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011 800 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2011 IT APPEARS THAT GREG HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF GREG HAS DISAPPEARED. GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THINNED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THAT TIME A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS. GREG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. GREG SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DOWN OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.9N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 19.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.1N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.9N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 18.6N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 18.3N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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