ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011 200 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2011 GREG HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE APPEARING IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RATHER POOR TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH CAME IN AT 77 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN SIX HOURS AGO. GREG REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A LARGE GYRE IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST GREG TO SLOW AND MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND GREG INTERACTS WITH THE WEAK GYRE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE INTENSITY OF GREG HAS LIKELY PLATEAUED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND 12 HOURS...GREG IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.8N 112.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.1N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 18.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/WROE NNNN
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