Tropical Depression SEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAVE INCREASED TO T2.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AT THIS POINT TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.

STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD RESULT
IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. 
ALSO...THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THESE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 4 DAYS.  THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE RATES OF INTENSIFICATION AS SHOWN IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.  SINCE
THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE SHIPS
MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 WITH THE DEPRESSION BEING STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND
DURING THAT TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE A BIT. 
THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH A BREAK
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 120W AND 135W BY DAY 5.  AT THAT POINT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 13.8N  99.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 15.6N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 16.4N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 20.0N 118.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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