Tropical Storm EUGENE

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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2011
 
EUGENE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23 DEG C WATER. ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE OUTER
CIRCULATION...WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATING
ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER.  IN SPITE OF THE NEARLY TOTAL LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SATELLITE PICTURES AND A 0515 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST
THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAINS VIGOROUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 35 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB/SAB SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC AND SEVERAL 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS
FROM THE ASCAT PASS.  A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AS
THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES EVEN COOLER WATERS. EUGENE IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
EUGENE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11.  IN ABOUT
36 HR...EUGENE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...
EUGENE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE MULTI-MODEL TVCE
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 18.9N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 19.2N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1800Z 19.8N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0600Z 19.9N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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