Tropical Storm EUGENE
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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011
EUGENE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND BECOME SMALLER
IN AREAL COVERAGE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS WANED...THE OUTER BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE PROMINENT...ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTION IS BARELY DEEP ENOUGH TO BE DVORAK-CLASSIFIABLE.
HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM ABOUT 1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT. ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE
SYSTEM SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT...ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. EUGENE SHOULD LOSE
ITS REMAINING CONVECTION TOMORROW AND PROBABLY BE DECLARED A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THE STORM HAS BEEN
MOVING AT ABOUT 285/12. AS EUGENE WEAKENS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLOW DUE TO IT BECOMING A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
MOTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 19.4N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 19.8N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 20.0N 133.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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