ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. A BLEND OF THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/11...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HR. AFTERWARD...EUGENE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AND TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW AS CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.2N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.7N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.3N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 19.8N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:14 UTC