Hurricane EUGENE

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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2011
 
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF EUGENE HAVE NOT
WARMED MUCH...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/5.5 FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS
IS T5.0/5.8.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS.  EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS
IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C AND INTO A DRIER...
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW LGEM...THE HIGHEST OF THE GUIDANCE...THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER WEAKENING
THAN INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
IVCN.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 96 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY
THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS.

EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/12 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THAT GENERAL HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME
DECELERATION AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

ALTHOUGH A 1658 UTC ASCAT PASS ONLY SKIMMED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
HURRICANE...IT DID INDICATE THAT THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE TOO
LARGE ON THAT SIDE.  THE RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN ALL
QUADRANTS...BUT WITHOUT REAL GROUND TRUTH...THEY COULD STILL BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 17.2N 120.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 17.6N 121.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 18.2N 124.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 18.9N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 19.5N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 20.5N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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