Hurricane EUGENE
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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2011
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
EUGENE HAS NOT WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
IT HAS BEGUN TO TRAVERSE A SHARP GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE SIZE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
SHRUNK...IT REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRIC. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY COOLED AROUND A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM
DIAMETER EYE. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 110 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF T/CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB/SAB. THE MAIN QUESTION NOW IS HOW QUICKLY THE RATE OF
WEAKENING WILL BE NOW THAT EUGENE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS. WEAKENING MAY INITIALLY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
EUGENE HAVING SOME OF THE CLASSIC CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS REASON...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING
AFTER THAT...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A IVCN/FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EUGENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72
HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 4-5 DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
BEFORE. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES. EUGENE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FORWARD SPEED
OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW CONSIDERABLY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF WHICH CONTINUES TO LIE WELL NORTH OF THE
MAIN TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 16.7N 117.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.3N 119.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 18.1N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.7N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 19.3N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 20.3N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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