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Hurricane EUGENE (Text)

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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
 
OCCASIONALLY IT HAS APPEARED THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
AN EYE...BUT EVERY TIME THAT HAPPENS THE WARM SPOT NOTED IN
INFRARED IMAGERY DISAPPEARS.  STILL...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 85 KT ON
THIS ADVISORY.
 
EUGENE HAS BEEN DEFYING THE MODELS AND IS NOT SLOWING DOWN.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/13.  STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST NEAR 128W FILLING A BIT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HURRICANE IS THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO GAIN
MUCH LATITUDE AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
FASTER-MOVING GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND
LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
 
ALTHOUGH MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT PREVENTED EUGENE
FROM STRENGTHENING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING AN EYE.
NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS.  EUGENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND BASED ON RECENT
NHC INTENSITY ERRORS AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING AT SOME POINT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS COOLER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST INDICATES A RATE OF
WEAKENING SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 14.0N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 14.5N 111.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 15.3N 113.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 16.1N 115.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 16.8N 117.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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