Hurricane EUGENE
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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
OVERALL EUGENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A PROMINENT CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
1800Z...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT...AS ANALYZED BY
UW-CIMSS...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS
MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING WHILE EUGENE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME ONCE EUGENE
CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...290/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...AS EUGENE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE AROUND 120W. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE AGAIN BEEN
DISCOUNTED AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNREALISTIC NORTHWARD TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.9N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.7N 110.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 15.4N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 17.4N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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