ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE STRUCTURE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CIRCULAR MASS OF CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COOLING AND THE APPEARANCE OF A NEW BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SINCE THAT TIME...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE. THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THUS THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE BASED UPON RECENT FIXES IS 285/09. EUGENE SHOULD BE STEERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS WHICH HAD BETTER INITIALIZATIONS OF THE STORM. UW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EUGENE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LIKELY HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOME BUT EUGENE WILL BE REACHING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AROUND THAT TIME. A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE THEN...POSSIBLY AT A FASTER RATE BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 11.0N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 11.5N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.2N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 13.8N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 15.0N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 16.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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