Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.  A FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PERHAPS A LITTLE
EXPOSED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH
T2.0...AND THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...WHICH LIKELY EXPLAINS THE
EXPOSED CENTER...AND THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALL
THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE
TO A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM. 
SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR BY DAY 5 AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
COLDER WATER.

SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
SOMEWHAT RECENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/8.  THE
SYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  IT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN WELL OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER-MOVING ECMWF MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 10.7N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 11.1N 100.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 12.0N 102.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 12.8N 104.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 13.5N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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