Hurricane DORA

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HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.9N 104.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.3N 108.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  55SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 109.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.8N 111.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 103.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
 
 
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