Hurricane DORA

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HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
  
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  99.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  99.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  99.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 101.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 105.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 107.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  99.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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