ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011 DORA HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE DORA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 21 DEG C WATERS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION MUCH LONGER...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE TONIGHT. AS NOTED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DORA IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 23.5N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 24.4N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 26.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:13 UTC