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Tropical Storm DORA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DORA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF TWO SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 40 KT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE 72-96 HR PERIOD WHERE IT APPEARS
THE REMNANT TROUGH COULD COME CLOSER TO NORTHERN BAJA THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST
THEREAFTER.  
 
ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED SINCE
LAST NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DORA IS MOVING OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING
FOR DORA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 12 HR OR LESS AND TO
A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 21.3N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 22.1N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 23.3N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 24.4N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 25.3N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 26.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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