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Tropical Storm DORA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DORA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A CDO APPEARS TO BE FORMING.  RECENT 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW INCREASED INNER-CORE
STRUCTURE WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A LOW-LEVEL RING FEATURE. THE
LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 AND 2.5...
RESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 3.0.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON THE TAFB AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
 
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.
MYSTERIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN DORA AS
MUCH AS I WOULD EXPECT.  THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS A PEAK
INTENSITY OF AROUND 90 KT IN 48-60 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL/HWRF ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT TO THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...DORA
WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE BY THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12.  THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD KEEP DORA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
DORA TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE.  THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AT DAYS 3-5 WHICH REQUIRED A SMALL
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT HAVE RECENTLY EXHIBITED A RIGHT-OF-TRACK
BIAS FOR SYSTEMS SOUTH OF MEXICO.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS LEFT OF TVCN AND CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED A 0000 UTC SHIP
OBSERVATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 11.1N  94.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 11.6N  96.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 12.5N  98.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 13.6N 101.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 14.9N 103.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 17.3N 107.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 21.0N 112.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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