Tropical Storm CALVIN

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TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011
 
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND NOW CONSISTS
OF A SHAPELESS AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
50 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE T-NUMBERS 
SUGGEST A STRONGER CYCLONE. CALVIN IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS...SO
THE CYCLONE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
 
CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A DAY OR
SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND BE STEERED
BY THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CALVIN OR ITS REMNANTS WILL PROBABLY
DRIFT WESTWARD OR MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 17.1N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.5N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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