Tropical Depression THREE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE
TO EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATER IN TWO DAYS.
 
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/11. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD...AND
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 14.8N 101.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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