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Hurricane ADRIAN (Text)

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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011
 
ADRIAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING IMPLOSIVE FILLING.  A RECENT TRMM
OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BROKEN OPEN...WITH THE
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE RAPID
DECAY MAKES THE INITIAL INTENSITY PROBLEMATIC.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 90 AND 77 KT RESPECTIVELY AT 0600
UTC.  HOWEVER...THE LACK OF AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THESE
ESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 75
KT...AND THIS COULD BE QUITE GENEROUS.

THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/10.  OTHER THAN
THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ADRIAN IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE STORM. 
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE ADRIAN TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. 
THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ADRIAN COULD
COMPLETELY SHEAR APART WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT BEING STEERED
MORE WESTWARD THAN FORECAST BY THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  IN DEFERENCE TO
THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
A COMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD KEEP THE
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND GOING.  ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND
HWRF SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BEFORE 96 HR...AND THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADRIAN COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 15.8N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 16.0N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 16.5N 113.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 17.0N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 17.6N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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