ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 DURING MOST OF THE DAY...ADRIAN HAS MAINTAINED A VERY DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WRAPPED BY A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. RECENTLY...THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS WEAKENED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LARGE EYE AND A CDO. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT SINCE ADRIAN IS BECOMING ANNULAR...IT WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL THE CIRCULATION BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ADRIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. ADRIAN COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS AND CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.4N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 106.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.0N 107.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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