ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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