ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN OUTER BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/4. ADRIAN IS CURRENTLY IN A COL REGION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF ADRIAN DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 H OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. WHILE GENERALLY AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BRING ADRIAN NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING IT PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET KEEP THE STORM FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADRIAN IS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 H...AND A 77 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40 KT OF STRENGTHENING. A NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE STORM...WHICH THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM AFTER 24 H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24 H...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE FROM 24-48 H IN ANTICIPATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 48 H...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 12.0N 100.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 12.6N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 14.1N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 14.7N 104.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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