Hurricane RINA
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HURRICANE RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
0900 UTC THU OCT 27 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 5 11 18 27 42
TROP DEPRESSION 2 4 21 28 33 32 32
TROPICAL STORM 75 74 65 54 44 38 25
HURRICANE 23 22 9 8 6 4 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 22 19 8 7 5 4 1
HUR CAT 2 1 2 1 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 55KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
MERIDA MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12)
COZUMEL MX 34 67 23(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92)
COZUMEL MX 50 4 12(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19)
COZUMEL MX 64 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BELIZE 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 11(33) 8(41) 6(47) X(47)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 1(19)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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