Hurricane RINA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
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HURRICANE RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
2100 UTC WED OCT 26 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 3 4 11 27 43
TROP DEPRESSION X 4 11 11 25 35 34
TROPICAL STORM 12 49 66 61 54 35 22
HURRICANE 88 46 20 24 11 3 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 77 38 16 19 9 3 1
HUR CAT 2 9 6 2 3 1 X X
HUR CAT 3 2 2 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 1 X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 70KT 60KT 60KT 50KT 35KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 5(16) 3(19)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11)
COZUMEL MX 34 8 68(76) 10(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) 1(88)
COZUMEL MX 50 1 32(33) 11(44) 1(45) X(45) 1(46) X(46)
COZUMEL MX 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BELIZE 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANAJA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 5( 7) 18(25) 17(42) 13(55) X(55) 1(56)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 13(20) 6(26) 1(27)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 13(21) 4(25) 2(27)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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