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Hurricane RINA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011               
1800 UTC MON OCT 24 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       9      21      26
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1      11       9       9
TROPICAL STORM  11       5       4       7      24      26      37
HURRICANE       89      95      96      92      57      45      29
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       77      39      21      22      28      28      21
HUR CAT 2       10      39      36      29      17      11       6
HUR CAT 3        2      15      31      30       9       5       2
HUR CAT 4        1       2       6      10       2       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   75KT    90KT   100KT   105KT   100KT    90KT    80KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)  11(26)   6(32)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  2   3( 5)   9(14)  18(32)  27(59)   8(67)   3(70)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  20(24)   7(31)   2(33)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   X(15)
 
BELIZE         34  2   3( 5)   6(11)  16(27)  18(45)   6(51)   3(54)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   1(18)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   7(16)   2(18)   1(19)
 
GUANAJA        34  3  15(18)  22(40)  12(52)   7(59)   4(63)   2(65)
GUANAJA        50  1   2( 3)   8(11)  10(21)   5(26)   1(27)   2(29)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   2(13)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   6(14)  15(29)  13(42)   8(50)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   6(19)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   7(12)   7(19)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   7(18)   8(26)   9(35)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  4   5( 9)   5(14)   3(17)   3(20)   4(24)   7(31)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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