Tropical Storm RINA
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TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011
RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
LOWER THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH
SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH
LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.
FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN. MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO
THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 20.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 19.5N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 18.0N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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