Hurricane RINA

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HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
 
THE EYE BECAME OBSCURED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE
BIT. HOWEVER...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE
WHICH IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IN EARLIER DATA. A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A LOWER MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 966 MB...BUT NEITHER SFMR OR FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
INDICATE THAT RINA IS STRONGER THAN A FEW HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
PREVAILING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RINA COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING EASTERN
YUCATAN. THEREAFTER...RINA WILL FIND A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONG SHEAR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY.
 
RINA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 3 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT SOON...THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE...STILL VERY
SLOWLY...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND BE VERY NEAR NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN IN 48 HOURS. THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS MOTION.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS RINA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. BY THEN...RINA EITHER RECURVES
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR MEANDERS NEAR YUCATAN AS A
SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST
CALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND BRINGS A WEAKENING RINA NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 17.5N  84.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 17.9N  85.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 19.0N  86.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 20.2N  86.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 21.3N  86.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 23.0N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 23.5N  83.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 23.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 
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