ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE HAS DETERIORATED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED. ADDITIONALLY...A NOAA DRIFTER BUOY 41558 RECENTLY PASSED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 989 MB...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING IS OCCURRING. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED BASED ON THE RECENT RAPID DECLINE OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER THE GENERAL REASONING FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PHILIPPE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...AND THE ESTIMATED FORWARD MOTION IS 070/11 KT. DESPITE THE SLOWING...AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE ARE FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM FOLLOW GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 30.1N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 31.5N 51.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 35.0N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 39.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 42.5N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 49.5N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 58.0N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:09 UTC