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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
 
A NEW ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND IS PARTIALLY COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE.
DVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT DUE TO
THE NEW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED SATELLITE WINDS INDICATE THAT
A 60-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POINTED DUE SOUTH INTO
PHILIPPE...SO THE CYCLONE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BELLIGERENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE.  THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND FOSTER SOME RE-STRENGTHENING
BY DAY 3 WHEN PHILIPPE REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THIS WOULD BE A MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAN THE ONE PHILIPPE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO SHY AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE-
PRODUCING GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  ON THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT
3 DAYS.
 
PHILIPPE IS AVERAGING A MOTION OF 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT...BUT A
SHORTER-TERM MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE TURNED
TOWARD THE WEST AS FORECAST.  THERE HAS BEEN A SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE.  ALTHOUGH
THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A WIDER
AND SHARPER RE-CURVATURE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...THAT TREND
IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE 12Z CYCLE.  IN ADDITION...THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS HAVE JOINED THE GFS IN THAT SOLUTION...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF NOW SHOWS A SHARPER TURN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...EVEN
SHOWING A BRIEF WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 26.3N  52.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 26.2N  54.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 25.7N  56.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 25.4N  59.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 25.5N  60.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 27.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 29.0N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 31.0N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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