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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF THE POSSIBLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF
PHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A CIRCULAR BALL OF CONVECTION.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUES ARE 45-55 KT...BUT THE LATEST FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 35-45
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 40 KT. PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...BUT WITH SUCH AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY MUCH...IF AT ALL. BY 48
HOURS...PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BE BLASTED BY 30 KT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND THAT SHOULD
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ODDLY ENOUGH...MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS
EITHER SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE OR VERY LITTLE WEAKENING
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS WHY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING EVEN IN THE FACE OF SEEMINGLY
HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. IF PHILIPPE CAN SURVIVE ITS
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO...THEN IT MAY BE
ABLE TO HOLD ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN UPPER-LEVEL WINDS RELAX
A BIT BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS.

PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT.  AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A SECOND
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A MORE WESTWARD
COURSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
SWITCHES TO A BIT SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS FROM 96-120 HOURS.  THIS
FORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 18.6N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 19.7N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 21.1N  45.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 22.3N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 23.1N  49.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 24.0N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 24.5N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 24.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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