Tropical Depression OPHELIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
 
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
HAS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED...HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.  ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
OPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES.  THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A
HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 285/4.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD
TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  THE TRACK OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 17.6N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 18.0N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 18.7N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.5N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 25.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 29.5N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 37.5N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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