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Tropical Storm NATE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       7      52      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1      11      27      NA
TROPICAL STORM  58      28      23      15      36      13      NA
HURRICANE       42      72      76      84      46       7      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       40      57      50      41      29       3      NA
HUR CAT 2        3      13      20      26      11       2      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       3       6      14       5       2      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       3       1       X      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    75KT    80KT    90KT    85KT    25KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   4(19)   X(19)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)  17(34)   4(38)   X(38)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  27(37)  12(49)   X(49)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  10(17)  35(52)  13(65)   X(65)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   8(25)   X(25)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  2   4( 6)   5(11)  11(22)  32(54)   9(63)   X(63)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   6(23)   X(23)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  4   6(10)   4(14)   7(21)  12(33)   3(36)   X(36)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
VERACRUZ MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
FRONTERA MX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FRONTERA MX    50  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MERIDA MX      34  6   8(14)   4(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MERIDA MX      50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
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