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Tropical Storm NATE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
 
DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR STATION AT SABANCUY INDICATE THAT NATE
HAS WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND OCCASIONALLY IS TRYING TO WRAP UP
AN EYE FEATURE.  THIS SIGNATURE IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH THE CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SUGGESTING A WEAKER
SYSTEM.  THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE THAT NATE HAS STRENGTHENED
SINCE THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE LEFT THIS
EVENING...SO THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 60 KT.
 
MEXICAN RADAR DATA SHOW THAT NATE REMAINS STATIONARY...AND IT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT WHILE IT IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF VERY
LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE NATE TO MOVE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE MODEL
CHANGE FROM SIX HOURS AGO...WITH THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS NOW
HAVING A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO THE
CYCLONE BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. NATE IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...SO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES HAS DIMINISHED. THUS THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED WELL TO THE LEFT AT THIS TIME...BUT BASICALLY ALL RELIABLE
MODELS ARE STILL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...THE FORECAST WOULD HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD AT A
LATER TIME.
 
EXCEPT FOR SOME DRY AIR NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THE ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE BUILDING AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NATE... WHICH IS
USUALLY QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. IT IS A LITTLE
SURPRISING THAT NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW NATE BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITH THIS TYPE OF UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE DRY AIR LURKING NEARBY...IT IS PROBABLY
BEST NOT TO MAKE TOO LARGE OF A CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.  THEREFORE...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS JUST A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND NEAREST THE LGEM MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 19.7N  92.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 20.0N  92.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 20.5N  92.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 21.2N  93.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 21.7N  94.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 22.0N  96.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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