Tropical Storm MARIA
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TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1500 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 2 3 8
TROP DEPRESSION 3 11 9 9 7 8 17
TROPICAL STORM 90 77 69 57 51 50 54
HURRICANE 7 11 21 32 40 39 21
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 10 17 25 30 31 18
HUR CAT 2 1 1 3 5 8 6 2
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 2 3 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 2(32)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PONCE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT THOMAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
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